Clear it up Fridays: An historic bull market

Next week, you’ll be hearing a lot about an historic bull market. That’s because most analysts agree that on August 22, the stock market is likely to have avoided a 20% or more decline from on a closing basis for 3,453 calendar days making it the longest bull market in history.

This calculation tracks the current bull market from March 9, 2009. On that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 80 points, or 1.2%, to end at 6,547.05, its lowest point since April 15, 1997. The S&P 500 index lost nearly 7 points or 1%, to end at 676.53, its lowest point since Sept. 12, 1996, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 25 points or 2%, to end at 1,268.64, its lowest point since Oct. 9, 2002.

Since March 9, 2009, the market has not dropped 20% from its closing day high.

A correction is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

While we celebrate this historic milestone, we’re also keeping an eye on factors that might signal a potential slowdown.

  • The spread between the two-year treasury and 10-year treasury appears to be tightening, which can be a leading indicator for a recession (which is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth).
  • The market breadth is also very narrow and mostly due to the strong performance of the FAANG stocks. (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google).
  • New home sales appear to be slowing down.
  • Student loan and consumer debt is expanding.

With strong earnings, low unemployment and a healthy economy, we remain cautiously optimistic that the record bull run will continue.