Market Commentary

For the week ending 6/27/2025

 

Good news on two geo-political fronts boosted investor sentiment, and all three major indices ended the week in positive territory. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new intraday peaks and set record highs on Friday.

Oil prices dropped and inflation concerns lessened thanks to President Trump’s announcement that Israel and Iran had agreed to a 12-hour ceasefire. Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iranian President Pezeshkian concurred with the announcement, with each saying his country would not violate the ceasefire unless the other did first.

Additionally, both US and Chinese officials confirmed that they had reached a trade agreement in which China would approve export applications for rare earths in exchange for the US removing some trade restrictions.

These two diplomatic developments cheered global markets, and the Dow jumped 3.8% to 43,819, the S&P 500 rose 3.4% to 6,173 and Nasdaq closed up 4.3% to 20,273.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a conservative approach to any rate increases during his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, despite Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller’s recent speculation that rate cuts may come as soon as the July Fed meeting.

June consumer confidence came in at 93.0, missing consensus 99.0 and down from May’s revised 98.4.

U.S. lawmakers spent a frantic weekend working to finalize their vote on President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill.

The president posted Tuesday on Truth Social: “To my friends in the Senate, lock yourself in a room if you must, don’t go home, and GET THE DEAL DONE THIS WEEK. Work with the House so they can pick it up, and pass it, IMMEDIATELY. NO ONE GOES ON VACATION UNTIL IT’S DONE.”

Disagreements among Republicans on Medicaid and deficits have been lingering for months in both the Senate and the House, though the Senate voted 51-49 late Saturday to proceed. The bill could pass the Senate as soon as today if GOP leadership can keep enough Republicans on board.

For the week, crude oil fell -11.3 % to $65.52/bbl, gold dropped -2.5% to $3,302/oz., and the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury dipped 10 bps to 4.28%.

 

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