Market Commentary
For the week ending 1/9/2026
Fending off potential headwinds from significant news on the geopolitical front, the markets wrapped up a relatively mild week with a surge on Friday. The Dow and S&P closed out the week with record highs, and the Nasdaq also enjoyed broad-based gains.
Friday began quietly, as investors digested a heavy batch of economic data. The December nonfarm payroll report showed slightly weaker-than-expected growth in payrolls at 50,000 versus the consensus 55,000, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% from 4.5%. The report pushed back the market’s expectation of the next rate cut from April to June, but also painted a solid enough picture of the labor market to quell fears of a downturn in consumer spending and the economy.
Investors also weighed mixed economic data from the manufacturing sector, some disappointing jobs data, volatility among defense stocks and the implications of the U.S. government’s capture of Venezuelan President Maduro.
A substantial quantity of global headlines warned of the potential implications following the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by U.S. forces. The Trump administration also continues to provide updates on what they expect as this situation develops. Venezuela’s interim leader has vowed to cooperate with Trump. President Trump expects to rapidly rebuild the country’s energy infrastructure to quickly increase oil production. The U.S. energy secretary said that America intended to keep significant control over Venezuelan oil, including overseeing sales “indefinitely.” President Trump said that he expects the U.S. could be running Venezuela for years. Following the actions in Venezuela, Trump has also hinted at the possibility of potential military action in Cuba, Mexico, Columbia and Greenland. Despite all of the geopolitical risks, the U.S. stock markets appeared to brush-off these developments.
Meanwhile, the December ISM Manufacturing data came in below expectations and at its lowest point since October 2024, marking its 10th straight month in contraction territory. However, the December ISM Services data came in above expectations at its highest level since October 2024. Commentary was mixed; as some firms flagged elevated costs, driven largely by tariffs and trade policy uncertainty; while others highlighted healthy demand overall, particularly during the holiday season.
There was also plenty of data on the labor market this week. The December ADP payrolls came in slightly below expectations. November’s JOLTS job openings were below expectations, with job openings now the lowest since September 2024. Weekly initial jobless claims were in-line with expectations, however continuing jobless claims were higher. This data supported the low-hiring/low-firing narrative that has been widely discussed on Wall Street in recent weeks.
On Wednesday afternoon most defense stocks declined following a post by President Trump that he demands all U.S. defense contractors stop issuing dividends and buying back shares, instead using that capital to build new plants and maintain new equipment. However, on Thursday most defense stocks rallied higher after President Trump called for a 50% increase in the U.S. military budget for 2027.
The next round of quarterly earnings reports will begin this week, starting (as always) with the major bank/financial firms. Wall Street previews have been mostly positive on financial institutions ahead of this week’s results, but that expectation is now already priced into these stocks.
Overall, the market is off to a strong start in 2026, with broadening strength driving the major averages to record highs. While next week’s inflation data and a pickup in earnings reports will test that momentum, the broader macro backdrop continues to point to an economy supportive of further market growth.
For the week, the Dow climbed 2.3% to 49,504, the S&P 500 rose 1.6% to 6,966 and the Nasdaq ended the week up 1.9% to 23,671.
Oil rose 3.1% to $59.12/bbl. Gold jumped 4% to $4,501/oz. and the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury dipped just slightly to 4.17%.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Winch Advisory Services, LLC [“Winch]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, no portion of the foregoing content serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Winch. Neither Winch’s investment adviser registration status, nor any amount of prior experience or success, should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if Winch is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Winch is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Winch’s current written disclosure Brochure and Form CRS discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request or at www.winchfinancial.com. PLEASE REMEMBER: If you are a Winch client, please contact Winch, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. PLEASE ALSO REMEMBER to advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian