Market Commentary

For the week ending 3/20/2026

 

Major U.S. indices rose on Monday, but then faced downward pressure on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, with the S&P 500 hitting its lowest close of the year, following escalations in the war with Iran and the Fed’s mid-week policy decision. All three major U.S. indices ended the week down.

Unease and uncertainty permeated the markets as events in the Persian Gulf continued to weigh on the global economy.

Last Wednesday, Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, which marked the first time Iran’s oil and gas facilities have been targeted since start of war. Oil prices spiked as that strike spotlighted the risk of further energy disruptions. Iran responded with several attacks targeting various Gulf energy sites, including some in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar. Iran missiles struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy hub (the largest LNG export facility in the world) on Wednesday and caused ‘extensive damage.’ Qatar says 17% of LNG capacity could be wiped out for up to 3-5 years after attack, affirming analyst fears that this could cause a lasting global gas shortage, as this facility is responsible for a fifth of global LNG supplies. U.S. President Donal Trump warned Iran to act with restraint and also threatened that the U.S. will ‘blow up’ South Pars gas field in Iran if strikes against Qatar energy continue. Analysts noted that this latest escalation is likely to extend war into May with no clear off-ramps.

The ongoing war significantly disrupted global energy markets last week. Benchmark Brent crude oil briefly surged 10% in one night to above $118 per barrel after strikes targeted oil and gas infrastructure. WTI crude oil also rose to $100 per barrel this week. European natural gas futures soared 35% this week, though the U.S. natural gas market is insulated and rose only slightly by comparison. That spike in energy costs fueled inflationary fears, as U.S. gasoline prices have jumped roughly 30% since the start of the campaign and reached the highest price since March of 2022. Additionally, diesel and jet fuel prices have been even more affected. Global airlines warned of soaring jet fuel prices which will result in higher fares and route cuts.

Stalled passage through the Strait of Hormuz remained a focus as the Trump administration struggled to build a coalition with other countries to escort ships through. While the initial response from most countries seemed reluctant at best, on Thursday leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan issued a joint statement that read, “We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.”

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to maintain its federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, as was widely expected. Chair Jerome Powell characterized the labor market as being in an “uncomfortable balance” with near-zero job growth, while noting slow progress on inflation, exacerbated by tariffs and now rising energy costs. All this has reduced the likelihood of Fed rate cuts this year.

Additionally, the annualized February PPI came in notably hotter than expected, up +3.4% versus consensus +2.9% and January’s +2.9%. February core PPI was up +3.9% versus consensus +3.5% and January’s +3.5%. Notably these higher inflation metrics do not reflect the spike in energy prices that we have been seeing thus far in March. This report increased fears that inflation may continue to rise, which also reduces the likelihood of a Fed cut.

In other economic news, Nvidia held its GTC event, led by the keynote speech from its CEO Jensen Huang, who announced the expectation for over $1 trillion in Blackwell/Rubin (the company’s most advanced semiconductors) bookings through 2027. This compares to the $500 billion through 2026 that he first disclosed last October. Nvidia maintained that computing demand for GPUs is still off the charts, and announced partnerships with several companies related to artificial intelligence, robotics, self-driving car technology, and orbital AI data centers.

For the week, the Dow fell -2.1% to 45,577. The S&P 500 slid -1.9% to 6,506 and the Nasdaq dropped -2.1% to 21,648.

Oil ended the week nearly flat at $98.23/bbl. Gold fell -9.6% to $4,575/oz. and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.39%.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Winch Advisory Services, LLC [“Winch]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, no portion of the foregoing content serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Winch. Neither Winch’s investment adviser registration status, nor any amount of prior experience or success, should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if Winch is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Winch is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Winch’s current written disclosure Brochure and Form CRS discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request or at www.winchfinancial.com. PLEASE REMEMBER: If you are a Winch client, please contact Winch, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.  Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. PLEASE ALSO REMEMBER to advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian