Market Commentary

For the week ending 3/27/2026

 

The ongoing war in Iran continued to drive the markets last week, creating pressure from multiple fronts, including higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields, and pronounced weakness in some specific mega-cap stocks.

After a brief period of optimism early in the week, the major U.S. indices all suffered significant declines on Thursday after public rhetoric from Iran took a more hostile tone. The Nasdaq Composite dipped into correction territory, down 10% from its all-time high, and all three major US indices ended the week lower.

On Saturday, March 21st President Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants and energy facilities if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran threatened to retaliate by striking energy facilities of U.S. allies, if its energy facilities were attacked. Then Monday morning President Trump said that the US had productive talks with Iran and that prompted him to postpone his recently threatened U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants and infrastructure for five more days. Investor’s initial optimism faded as Iranian state media rejected that any direct contact or negotiations had taken place. Meanwhile, the U.S. began sending more troops to the Middle East as Trump continues considering whether to deploy ground troops into Iran. Tuesday evening the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war. Trump said that Iran gave the U.S. a “present” as a sign of good faith, which was allowing the safe passage of 10 fuel tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Wednesday morning Iran said that it rejected the U.S. 15-point plan and issued its own ceasefire proposal, demanding for war reparations and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday morning reports suggested that the Pentagon was preparing a list of military options for a “final blow” to Iran, including a potential invasion of Iran’s Kharg Island crude-export hub, seizing strategic islands near the Strait of Hormuz, or a massive bombing campaign. Then Thursday evening President Trump extended his pause on attacking Iran energy facilities by another 10 days (until April 6th), after repeating that talks with Iran “are going very well.” As hopes of a quick resolution with Iran faded once again, oil prices rose throughout the week, which pushed Treasury yields higher, and inflation concerns to mount.

The war in Iran also featured heavily in discussion at the annual CERAWeek conference for energy industry leaders, where oil executives said the scale of this Middle East supply disruption is the biggest they’ve seen. Chevron’s CEO warned that the Iran conflict has disrupted energy markets more than the Russia-Ukraine War; risks from a Strait of Hormuz closure are not fully priced in, and it will take time to rebuild inventories after Strait of Hormuz reopens as supply chains don’t respond immediately. On the other hand, Kuwait Petroleum’s CEO said it could restore production relatively quickly if the Iran war ended, returning to full output in three to four months.

Private Credit also made some meaningful headlines again this week. Apollo said more investors requested to withdraw funds from its flagship private credit fund than could be allowed, and the fund stuck to its 5% withdrawal cap. This is certainly not the first or the last private credit fund to limit redemptions from its investors. Credit quality was also a concern after rating agency Moody’s downgraded a different private credit fund, FS KKR, to junk status due to concerns about asset quality as its bad loans grow. However, many big firms on Wall Street paint a less dire scenario than the financial press. Goldman Sachs said private credit stress is unlikely to generate large macroeconomic spillovers on its own.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.4% on Thursday, just reaching the level of a 10% correction from its October peak. A landmark social media lawsuit verdict against Meta/Facebook and Google/YouTube provided much of the impetus for that slide. A jury found the two companies negligent, as their social media platform designs encourage addiction and target young users. Some warned that the outcome of this case could set a precedent for more lawsuits and safety regulations for social media companies. Additionally, software stocks came under pressure again on renewed concerns of AI disruption, after enhancements to Anthropic’s Claude and reports that AWS has ramped up the deployment of AI agents to automate business functions.

For the week, the S&P dropped -2.1% to 6,369, while the Nasdaq slid -3.2% to 20,948, and the Dow fell -0.9% to 45,167.

Oil rose 1.3% to $99.64/bbl. Gold fell -1.1% to $4,524/oz. and the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury rose to 4.44%.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Winch Advisory Services, LLC [“Winch]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, no portion of the foregoing content serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Winch. Neither Winch’s investment adviser registration status, nor any amount of prior experience or success, should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if Winch is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Winch is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Winch’s current written disclosure Brochure and Form CRS discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request or at www.winchfinancial.com. PLEASE REMEMBER: If you are a Winch client, please contact Winch, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.  Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. PLEASE ALSO REMEMBER to advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian