Market Commentary
for the week ending 7/10/2026

Tensions flared in the Middle East last week as President Donald Trump declared an end to the ceasefire and Iran fired on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Additional market influences came from a contentious NATO summit, Federal Reserve reports and SK Hynix’s historic IPO.

In the face of that busy news week, the markets closed with mixed results as both Nasdaq and the S&P rose, and the Dow dipped.

Tuesday morning the Middle East jumped back in the headlines after Iran fired missiles at three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, to display its control over the Strait. Market volatility spiked Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced at a NATO summit that the interim ceasefire with Iran was “over” and that he felt negotiations with Iran were a “waste of time.” The U.S. retaliated with substantial military strikes against Iran throughout the week and revoked a waiver that allowed Iran to sell its oil. Iran then responded with strikes on US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. The White House said this week that it is preparing for a prolonged Iran confrontation. Shipping traffic through the Strait is now reportedly near a standstill again. This significant escalation sent WTI crude oil up over 5% to as high as $76 per barrel. However, by Friday afternoon, oil prices had eased down to $71.41, as reports surfaced of behind-the-scenes diplomatic outreach. The flare-up did seem to reignite consumer anxieties as national retail gas prices climbed back to an average of $3.88 per gallon.

Also on Tuesday, President Trump arrived in Turkey for the NATO summit, amid tensions that the alliance is more fractured than in the past. Trump reiterated that he is very disappointed in NATO and is considering drastically cutting US forces in Europe. Trump also said that he wants no involvement with Spain and wants to “cut off all trade” with that country. Trump renewed his threats and claims that the US should be in control of Greenland. President Trump also met with Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy and later granted Ukraine permission to produce their own Patriot missiles.

Against all that noise, the U.S. markets remained resilient and, despite heavy mid-week selling, they rebounded sharply to end the week. Semiconductor stocks led the market pullback on Tuesday following a quarterly report from Samsung Electronics. While Samsung reported an operating profit that was more than 1,800% higher than a year ago, revenue came in just shy of elevated expectations, reinforcing concerns that much of the optimism surrounding the semiconductor industry may already be reflected in valuations. A 3.1% surge in the Semiconductor Index fueled Thursday’s recovery. This rally occurred as investors looked past the geopolitical noise to revive the Artificial Intelligence trade, anticipating massive demand for memory chip giants like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix. On that note, shares of the South Korean based chip manufacturer, SK Hynix, began trading on the Nasdaq on Friday. Meta Platforms was up 6% on Friday as investors continued to warm to the company’s AI strategy following a series of product and infrastructure announcements, including reports that it may monetize surplus computing capacity and expand its AI infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes on Wednesday revealed a hawkish shift under Chairman Kevin Warsh. Central bank officials had mixed opinions, with some saying that interest rates may need to be hiked later this year if geopolitical supply shocks cause inflation to remain elevated.

Overall, last week saw increased caution related to the escalating tensions with Iran and the surge in oil prices. However, with strength from technology sector, overall breadth remained relatively positive. Analysts characterized the rotation beneath the surface as a healthy feature of the ongoing bull market. Buy-the-dip interest has helped cushion the major indices even as higher oil prices continued to pressure much of the broader market. Attention now shifts to next week’s start of second-quarter earnings season, with the major banks set to report first, along with another round of inflation data.

For the week, the Dow dipped -0.5% to 52,637. The S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to 7,575 and Nasdaq jumped 1.7% to 26,282.

Oil rose 3.8% to $71.41/bbl. Gold fell -0.3% to $4,114/oz. and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.56%.

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